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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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